February Review / March Preview

A week ago it wasn't looking very positive for February, but things took a turn at the end of the month.

High Temperatures

Here we Edmonton' have the High temperatures for the last few months.

The first few weeks of February were well below average, and on February 3rd we set a recent record for coldest-High (since 1996) at -18.4°C.

The end of the month felt warm, and it was certainly a change from the rest of the month, but it was actually only a few degrees above the average, and it wasn't anywhere near the top of the range.

By the end of the month we did end up with a total of 7 Highs above freezing, which appear here in orange. That's below the average of 12, but above years like 2014, 2009, 2007 and 2001. 2018 also joins 2014 and 2007 as the only recent February's without any days above 5°C.

We also had 4 Highs below -15°C which is a bit cool, but nothing like the 4 Highs below -20°C in 2011.

This February's average High of -7°C was the 3rd coldest of the last 20 years, after 2007 at -7.3°C and 2014 at -10.1°C. And on the opposite side of things, the average High for February 2016 was 10°C warm than this year, way up at 3°C.

Low Temperatures

For the Low temperatures we set a few recent-coldest records on February 4th, 11th and 12th. Those days were still well, well above the historic records though, which are all down around -40°C.

And it's no surprise that the Lows this month were pretty cold.

The average Low was -17.6°C, which was the 2nd coldest here after 2014 at -19.3°C. We had 12 Lows below -20°C, including 2 below -25°C and 1 below -30°C, and 2014 and 2011 are the only other recent years in that range.

Warm & Cold Days

This chart shows how many warm days (0°C or warmer) and cold days (-20°C or colder) each February has had since 1881.

We first looked at this chart last week, and at that point the forecast was making it sound like February might end up with only 2 or 3 days above freezing. That would have been pretty unusual.

In the end the surprise warmspell pushed February up to 7 warm days, which is below average, but which happens ever 5 years-or-so. And the 12 Lows below -20°C is above average, but isn't too extreme.

Snowfall

In terms of snowfall the International Airport finished the month with 16cm, which is just a bit above the average. So far this winter December has been the only month with snowfall well below the average.

Last year February only had 9cm, but then March and April 2017 were both well above average.

For the winter so far that puts our cumulative snowfall at 76.7cm. That's a bit below average for the beginning of March, although as I type this Environment Canada has issued a winter storm warning for the next few days.

From the red line in this chart we can see how much the March & April snow added to the totals for 2016-2017 last year.

Snowdepth

For snowdepth, the International and Blatchford both jumped up to around 35cm following the storm at the beginning of the month. But by the end of February they had both settled down to 20~25cm, which is right around the average for this year. That's well above where we were at this point last year, when the snow had melted down to almost 0cm.

The beginning of March is when the Big Melt usually starts, and even if we get new snow it doesn't hang around for very long.

This chart shows how the melt might go, although that will obviously depend on how warm the temperatures are and on how much new snow we get. The last 3 years all hit 0cm before the end of March, which is very early. But even after we hit 0cm for the first time, there's always a chance of later spring snowstorms.

March

Here were have the temperature history for March. One thing to keep in mind is that March is not summer. And a lot of the time it isn't even spring. Last March started with a two-week long coldsnap.

In March we average about 2 Lows below -20°C, although the way that plays out is that 2-out-of-3 years don't have any, and then the odd year gets a bunch of them.

On the other hand though, March usually has a lot of days above 0°C. The recent average is 20 days with Highs above freezing, although that's ranged from 2002 with 8 and 2011 with 11, up to 2010 and 2016 with 29.

A cool March after a warm February can sometimes feel like a disappointment - it feels like the weather is going backwards. But February 2018 was pretty chilly, so March basically has to be warmer (fingers-crossed).