September Review / October Preview

So we come to the end of another month.

In terms of high temperatures, September was pretty unexceptional. We had no days above 30°C, and only 2 days above 25°C. But we also didn't have any days that didn't break 0°C, and only one day that didn't break 10°C. In terms of those numbers, 2016 was a pretty close match to a century ago in 1916. More recently, a September like 2009 is a real standout with 3 days above 30°C, 11 days above 25°C and 20 days above 20°C.

For low temperatures, September 2016 was again pretty typical - if a little on the low side - with only 3 nights above 10°C. But there were no nights below 0°C, which does happen about half of the time (and the International airport actually had 10 nights below freezing last month).

Here we've got the track of last month's high temperatures, and for the most part we were sitting right around the average. There were a couple of cool days at the beginning of the month, and then a couple of warmspells, including one 20-year-record of 25°C on the 26th.

Looking into the future we can see that the average high temperature won't drop below 0°C until about mid-November, but with the day-to-day fluctuations we'll certainly start to see some days that don't break the freezing-mark soon.

And here's the track of the daytime lows. Again, it stayed pretty close to average except for a few warm days. The average lows drops below 0°C around the middle of October. And this chart extends to the end of November - which is basically the start of deepest, darkest winter - which is why there are some -30°Cs showing up on the far right.

In terms of precipitation, September was a little below average, following August which was a little above average.

But even with that below-average September, the cumulative total for the year is sitting above the average, and basically right at the 75th percentile.

For anyone following the race-for-warmest-ever-recorded-year, 2016 is still in top spot. 1981 has closed the gap a bit with a warm September, but then 1981 had a pretty cool October. That could give 2016 a chance to open up more of a lead, but we'll have to wait and see.

Finally then, here is what is typical for October:

Days above 25°C aren't impossible, but they are pretty unlikely. And even days above 20°C will be pretty rare. On the other hand, most days will break 0°C, so we're not into true winter yet.

For October lows, just looking at all of the colours on this chart, the warm oranges have basically disappeared. They've been replaced with lots of whites, which are the 0°C to -10°C range, although for the most part the blues (below -10°C) won't start creeping in until November.