The Bottom of Winter: 2020-2021

It feels strange to say this given the mild winter so far, but...we've made it. January 9th and 10th is when Edmonton's average temperatures bottom-out for the year.

Average Highs

Using the 30-year averages our Highs are at their coldest on January 9th, with a average High of -8.6°C. After that the average starts climbing again, although not particularly quickly. By January 18th the average is above -5°C, but then it hangs out there for a month-and-a-half. It doesn't start to really shoot up towards spring until the first week of March.

That is all just the average, though. The blue range in this chart shows the coldest single days from the last 30-years, and the coldest January 9th had a High of "only" -24.6°C. Meanwhile, December 29th and January 19th both got all of the way down to -30.9°C (in 1992 and 1996, respectively).

Average Lows

The 30-year average Low is at its lowest on January 10th, at -17.8°C. By January 15th that will be up above -15°C again, but it will hang out there and doesn't rise above -10°C until March 10. So we still have aways to go.

In the past 30 years our two coldest Lows were last winter at -37.6°C on January 15 2020, and -37.8°C on January 19th 1996.

Cold Days During the Winter

This charts shows when during the year we get Lows of -20°C. Each tiny little dot is a Low which hit -20°C, and the shaded area in the background is our whole history back to the 1880s, while the purples & blues are just for 1990-today.

Since the 1980's we've averaged around 23 Lows at -20°C, but going back a few decades that number was closer to 35-45. Historically the peak of our -20°C season was late~ish January, but more recently January 10-12th have had the most.

That doesn't mean that we we are all done with -20°C Lows for the rest of the winter - we will almost certainly get some more. But from November through January 10-12th the likelihood that we will hit -20°C is going up, but from here to April those -20°C Lows become less likely.

Here is the same chart, except that this time it has our -25°C Lows. Since 2000 we've averaged about 9 of those each winter, and that's down from 20-25 a century ago.

Historically our -25°C Lows peaked in late-January, but more recently it has been around January 10th again.

Warm Days During the Winter

Here we have the flip side, with all of the Highs that hit 0°C. Historically those bottomed-out around New Year's, and that's also been the case recently. The likelihood of 0°C Highs slooooowly climbs over the next month-and-a-half, and takes off once we hit March.

And here are our 5°C Highs. They also bottom-out around New Year's, and then do a slow climb until March.

Recent Winters

Finally, here is a quick look at the Lows for recent winters going back to 2015-2016. We have made it to the bottom of the winter of 2020-2021, and things have been very mild. But there is still plenty of time left for this winter to make its presence felt.