2016/04/30

April Review / May Preview

And so we come to the end of another warm month.


One day above 25°C, a few more above 20°C, no highs below 0°C, and even for the overnight lows only 9 days were below freezing. Numbers-wise, this April was pretty similar to 2005 and 2006, and much warmer than the cold Aprils like 2002 and 2013.

And what does May typically look like?


About every 5 years we'll have a day in May that reaches 30°C. Most years will have at least one day above 25°C - since 1997 the only years that didn't were 2000, 2005, 2009 and 2011. Aside from that we can probably expect around 10 days above 20°C, and most-but-not-all nights will stay above freezing.

Here's a different look at the past couple of months, along with the next couple:


There's a lot going on here, but these charts basically show the temperature ranges for March through June for the past 20 years.

This year, we've spent almost all of the last two months above the average, with the only genuinely "cold" period being a few rainy days in late April. And we haven't just been above average, but 39-out-of-61 days were between the 75th percentile and the maximum.

For May and June we can expect the temperatures to increase, with the last frost happening anywhere from April 18th (1998 and 2012) through May 23 (2002).

Finally, right now the forecast for the first week of May is calling for some days of 25°C or more. To put things in perspective, here are some of the recent warmest days for the start of May:


Temperatures above 25°C aren't unheard of for this week during the last 30 years, but 19°C is enough to make it into the Top 50. If we break any records I'll be back later in the week to take a look.

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